Old Bexley and Sidcup By-election Part 1
Last week James Brokenshire, MP for the constituency of Old Bexley and Sidcup, died of lung cancer at the age of 53. He had held this parliamentary seat since 2010 and maintained a strong majority throughout the 2015, 2017 and 2019 general elections. Hence the constituency of Old Bexley and Sidcup is considered a “safe seat” for the Conservative Party. In fact it has only ever returned MPs from that party since its creation in 1983. As a result of Mr Brokenshire’s death, there will now be a by-election held in the constituency of Old Bexley and Sidcup to return a new MP to parliament. What makes this local election a little more interesting than usual, is that it will not be taking place against a wider ongoing national election. Therefore, there is scope that local issues may well play a greater part in the electioneering of all participating parties.
The parliamentary procedure for holding a by-election are as follows. The Chief Whip of the political party whose MP held the vacant seat starts the process by “moving the Writ”. This is a motion requesting “that the Speaker do issue his Warrant to the Clerk of the Crown to make out a new Writ for the electing of a Member to serve in this present Parliament for the constituency of .... in the room of…”. The Speaker puts the question to MPs to decide whether to agree to the motion. If MPs agree it becomes an Order for the Speaker. The Speaker then issues a Warrant to the Clerk of the Crown who then sends the writ to the Returning Officer, who is responsible for the administration of the by-election. A new Writ is usually issued within three months of the vacancy. The by-election timetable is between 21 and 27 working days from the issuing of the writ.
As the current UK government enjoys a majority of over 80 seats, there is no pressing political need to hold this by-election as soon as possible. Therefore it seems logical that it will more than likely happen in early 2022. However, nothing is in tablets of stone so there is a possibility it could take place prior to Christmas, as did the last General election in 2019. A more important factor than the prospective date, is the issue of the candidates fielded by each respective party. As mentioned previously, Old Bexley and Sidcup is a safe seat for the Conservative Party. Hence, it is broadly expected that whoever becomes the Conservative candidate will subsequently win the by-election, due to the established voting patterns of the constituents. Old Bexley and Sidcup is a predominantly white, middle-class suburb of South-East London and as such is seen as a Tory “heartland”.
Like any political party, the Conservatives have their own unique set of rules with regard to candidate selection. In the past, Conservative party selection was largely in the control of the local Constituency Associations, however there was an approved list held at party HQ to be considered. In recent years the approved list has been replaced and a more equitable assessment board convened ensuring greater ethnic diversity and more female representation. However, local Constituency Associations still have a major say in candidate selection. Therefore under normal circumstances, there shouldn’t be any controversy surrounding the new Conservative candidate. However, the current Prime Minister Boris Johnson isn’t known for being a “stickler for the rules”. There is a degree of concern among the constituents of Old Bexley and Sidcup, as to whether a candidate could be “imposed” and parachuted into a convenient safe seat.
Time will tell as to what happens next. There is scope for the entire by-election to be a straightforward and uncontroversial process. Equally, things may go the opposite way. UK politics have become very unsettled in the last six years, Traditional voting patterns, party loyalties and general public opinions have shifted and not necessarily along traditional party lines. Furthermore, the Conservative party has radically changed since 2019. Many moderate MPs did not stand for re-election in the last general election. Although Old Bexley and Sidcup may still be a Tory safe seat, that doesn’t mean that the constituency is by default, well disposed toward Boris Johnson and his particular brand of politics. It will be interesting to see if such sentiments are reflected in the by-election.
